I'm interested in quantifying the uncertainties for our models of the earth system. Since moving into climate science I've done climate modelling (perturbed parameter ensembles with the Met Office Hadley Centre model HadCM3), experimental design and analysis for future sea level projections (Bayesian calibration), and dabbled in vegetation and ice sheet modelling. I've also reviewed and recommended best practice in uncertainty assessment and communication in various areas of earth system science, particularly climate and extreme weather. For example, I wrote two chapters of this book on risk and uncertainty assessment for natural hazards.
Here is my publication list.
Impact and engagement
Externally funded projects
Quantifying Uncertainty in ANTarctic Ice Sheet instability
|Role||Start date||End date||Funding source|
|Lead||01/Aug/2015||31/Jan/2016||University of Exeter|
Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica. If this is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are either too low in spatial resolution to explicitly resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modeling uncertainties. The proposed work brings together and analyses two new datasets that complement each other in model complexity – a large ensemble generated with a low resolution model, and a small ensemble from a high resolution model – by constructing a new emulator of the relationship between them.