Tim Harford (pictured), presenter of the inimitable More or Less, outlines the thinking behind the OU/BBC Radio Four series which has tackled such questions as: does the private sector pay better than the public sector? are energy-saving lightbulbs really as bright as they claim? are your trousers flattering you? And he explains how he incurred the wrath of cyclists and cat-lovers.
Does More or Less have a mission?
It’s really about empowering people to treat numbers and statistics as their friends, rather than as something that can used to intimidate them, exclude them or browbeat them. And we try hard to make it fun.
How do you select your themes?
We’re lucky to have a very active group of listeners, and we take a lot of our ideas from them.
We try to respond to at least one news item every week. One of the things we have is more time to get at the truth: the evening news might have two or three hours, we have a couple of days. That gives us an unfair advantage, we try and use it.
How do you try to get at the truth?
It’s often about taking numbers that have been stripped of any context and saying: the number is correct, but you have to understand the context before you can understand what it means.
To know how a number was collected can tell you a lot about it. One of my favourites examples is: how many security cameras are there in the UK? The answer is: we don’t know. Most security cameras are installed on private property, and why would anybody count them? But there’s a number that goes around, and is very commonly sited, and we looked at where it came from. It came from researchers who had walked down two streets in London, and counted every camera on those two streets, and scaled up. This happened in 2002, and that number is still going around.
Should we all be more wary when we hear statistics quoted?
There’s a basic health check you can do. Ask yourself: how big a number is that? There are 60 million people in the country, so if somebody says they’re spending £6 million on some programme, that’s 10p per person. If they say ‘£6 billion’ that’s £100 per person. Quite a difference.
When you’re told something has risen or fallen, ask yourself: compared to what? since when? So if, as I heard recently, the government is said to be spending more on the armed forces since 1997, think: is that maybe due to the fact we’re fighting a couple of wars, and in the previous 10 years, we weren’t?
Are there some topics which provoke strong reactions?
We’ve tried not shy away from contentious topics. We talk about politically charged subjects, we talk about crime, we have an item I’m quite proud of on human trafficking and forced prostitution.
Sometimes subjects are controversial to our great surprise. We had an item about how many birds are killed by cats, and an item on should cyclists wear helmets, and both of these we just thought of as being of some interest. But they turned out to have huge lobby groups attached, which is always interesting.
Do you personally have any connection with The Open University?
I have been seriously considering taking a statistics course at the OU. My professional academic qualifications are in economics, which gives me a strong grasp of a particular kind of statistics, but not of statistics in general. So I’ve ordered all the brochures and I’ve been sitting and leafing them through just like a kid in a sweetshop. But I don’t want to make any rash promises, because I know an OU course is a serious commitment, and I’m extremely busy.
Funnily enough my father, stepmother and brother-in-law all have Open University qualifications at various levels, and my late mother was very committed to adult education. So I think the mission of the OU to provide quality education to people at any stage of their life, and of any background, is incredibly important.
Broadcaster and author Tim Harford writes the Undercover Economist column and Dear Economist problem page in the Financial Times. He has been presented of More or Less since 2007.Tim is on Twitter @timharford.

