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Mozambique
Reports and documents
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Detailed results from Mozambique’s 2007 census are being published on a province by province basis. One version is on the National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatística) website. A slightly different version, with data on some different questions, is being provided at provincial press conferences. There is interesting data on language, religion, population shifts, education, and possessions such as bicycles and mobile telephones. These are posted below, in very large PowerPoint files.
National Statistics Institute (Instituto Nacional de Estatística)
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Reports of 28 May pledges and 29 April joint government donor aide-memoire.
Mozambique Political Process Bulletin 39 - 10 June 2009 (341 kb)
Boletim sobre o processor Político em Moçambique 39 - 10 de Junho de 2009 (343 kb)
Sheridan statement of G19 pledges (Eng & Port) (66 kb)
Sheridan RC closing speech 29 04 09 (99kb)
Revisão Conjunta 2009 Aide Mémoire (366 kb)
Apresentacao Revisão Conjunta 2009 (922 kb)
Comunicado de imprensa 29 04 2009 (77kb)
Revisão do Desempenho dos PAPs (650 kb)
Discurso do Embaixador da Finlandia 29 04 09 (29kb)
Discurso do Ministro das Financas 29 04 09 (43kb)
PAF indicators for 2008 (37 kb)
The 19 budget support donors signed a new five-year memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Mozambican government on 18 March. There are several important subtle changes - donors have increased their scope to put pressure on government (particularly over corruption) and to be even more deeply involved in government planning processes, but individual donors have accepted a reduction in space for unilateral action.
Joint government-donor press statement (107 kb)
Statement by donor head Frank Sheridan (46 kb)
Full 2009 Memorandum of Understanding (90 pages, 566 kb)
J Hanlon report on new MoU (50 kb)
Budget support donors website - with details of reviews, evaluations, etc
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Cholera is now present in most of Mozambique, and the epidemic is becoming more serious. In the first 12 weeks of 2009, 13,000 cases were reported, with 140 deaths. This is a mortality rate of 1.1%, which is considered low. But there are already more cases than all of 2008, when there were 12,000 cases and 150 deaths.
Protestors attacked a cholera treatment centre and a prevention team in Cabo Delgado and have killed two Red Cross volunteers and a policeman. This is a repeat of incidents in coastal Nampula seven years ago, in which brigades putting chlorine in wells were instead accused of putting cholera in the wells, and were attacked. Those protests were studied by Carlos Serra and a team from Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, and published in 2003 in an excellent small book Cólera e catarse. The shocking finding of the study was that poor people strongly believed that the rich and powerful wanted to kill them.
On 17 March, at least 12 people suffocated to death in an overcrowded police cell -- most had been arrested after cholera protests.
13 dead in police cell (55 kb)
Preface & summary (English & Portuguese) to Carlos Serra - Cólera e catarse (29 kb)
Carlos Serra - Cólera e catarse - full text (Portuguese) (715 kb)
Cholera epidemic & protests at 10 March 09 (47kb)
OCHA Regional Cholera Update No3 09Jan09 (3.4 Mb)
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A daily Bulletin is being published during the election period
To subscribe: Para assinar:
In English: http://tinyurl.com/mz-en-sub
Em Português: http://tinyurl.com/mz-pt-sub
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There is also a website with additional material, including text messages from "citizen correspondents":
In English: http://www.cip.org.mz/pub2008/index_en.asp
Em Português: http://www.cip.org.mz/pub2008/
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Is Mozambique an African success story? It has 7% a year growth rate and substantial foreign investment. It is the donors' model pupil, but poverty is increasing. The number of bicycles has doubled and this is often cited as the symbol of development. In his book, Do bicycles equal development in Mozambique? Joseph Hanlon challenges key assumptions of both the donors and the government. The book has been published in Portuguese and will be available in English in November.
Hanlon e Smart lançam livro sobre Moçambique
A report on an accident at the Massingir dam in May 2008 points to errors in the original construction and in recent repairs. The accident caused major damage and will reduce the water available for biofuel and rice production.
AIM summary of official report (36 kb)
Comissão de inquérito ao acidente da barragem de Massingir - Relatório (780 kb)
High ranking officials in the National Social Security Institute (INSS) stole $8 million between 2002 and 2008, according to a commission of enquiry set up by Labour Minister Helena Taipo following denunciations of serious irregularities. In an unprecedented action, a summary of the commission report was published by Taipo on 3 June 2008. It names the ministry officials and companies involved in the frauds.
Ministry of Labour report on inquiry commission (212 kb)
More than 36,000 Mozambicans fled the attacks on foreigners in South Africa. At least 23 Mozambicans have been killed. Below are reports from the Mozambican National Disaster Management Institute (Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades) and from the Mozambican press agency AIM. On 2 June 2008 the emergency phase of the repatriation was declared as over. Several thousand Mozambicans remained in emergency centres in South Africa set up by the Mozambican government, but they decided not to return to Mozambique, hoping the violence would end.
End of emergency 2.6.8 (84 kb)
Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades special report 6 - 27.05.08 (268 kb)
Mozambican death toll now 23 - AIM 26.05.08 (23 kb)
Mozambique government reports on the 2008 floods from January and February, the worst of the flood period, are posted here. They include Boletims Hidrológico Nacional (BHN) issued daily by DNA (Direcção Nacional de Águas) and irregular reports issued by INGC (Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades) and CANOE (Centro Nacional Operativo de Emergência).
Cyclone Jokwe 9 March 2008 (44 kb)
Cyclone Jokwe warning - 8 Mar 2008 (47 kb)
No bulletins are available from the holiday weekend.
DNA 29Jan08 BNH 54 (224kb) Record flooding at Tete
DNA resumo nr2 14-20Jan08 Has tables comparing 2001, 2007 and 2008 floods. (524 kb)
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Poverty is said to be falling - but chronic child malnutrition is increasing. This paper below was for the 19 Sept 2007 IESE conference in Maputo and argues that the decline in poverty is exaggerated. The gap between rich and poor is widening with most of the growth in GDP going to the top 20% while the poor are becoming steadily poorer and unable to properly feed their children. Most people cannot use the present economic model to pull themselves out of poverty by their own bootstraps.
These views were repeated in a paper presented at a conference at the British Foreign Office’s Wilton Park on "Conflict Prevention and Development Co-operation in Africa" on 10 November 2007. I further argued that "donors are being highly selective in the choice of data, highlighting the most positive figures while ignoring equally valid information that paints a different picture."
Pedro Couto, vice minister of Finance, attended the conference, and asked Channing Arndt of the University of Copenhagen and the Ministry of Planning and Development - and one of the main architects of the poverty decline figures criticised as exaggerated - to respond for the government.
That response is harsh: "Hanlon’s primary assertions do not withstand scrutiny." In my reply to Arndt’s response, I accuse Arndt of wishful thinking, of seeing the main problem (in his own words) of "communicating progress in the fight against poverty" and of ignoring overwhelming evidence that living conditions are becoming worse for the majority of Mozambicans. My two papers, Dr Arndt’s response, and my reply, are all posted below.
This debate goes to the heart of government and donor policy. We both agree the Mozambique remains very poor, but Dr Arndt’s paper says that present policy is working to reduce poverty - indeed, quite rapidly - while I claim to show the policy is failing - poverty is worsening and a change is policy is needed.
Is Poverty Decreasing in Mozambique? by Joseph Hanlon (149 kb)
Wilton Park paper. The poverty discussion is in the second half of the paper. (175 kb)
Comments of Dr Channing Arndt (9 January 2008 revised version, 72 kb)
Hanlon Response to Dr Arndt (9 December 2007 version, 53 kb)
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