{"id":22090,"date":"2022-10-03T11:09:21","date_gmt":"2022-10-03T10:09:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ounews.co\/?p=22090"},"modified":"2022-10-03T11:09:21","modified_gmt":"2022-10-03T10:09:21","slug":"ukraine-war-putin-announces-annexation-of-four-regions-but-his-hold-on-them-may-be-flimsy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/arts-social-sciences\/ukraine-war-putin-announces-annexation-of-four-regions-but-his-hold-on-them-may-be-flimsy\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine war: Putin announces annexation of four regions, but his hold on them may be\u00a0flimsy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody<\/a> is a lecturer in politics and international studies at the OU and an expert on Russian foreign and security policy, with a particular interest in the interplay of communication, perception and security. Here’s her take on Putin in the wake of the recent annexations of Ukraine territory.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Dr

Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody<\/p><\/div>\n

Vladimir Putin has formally signed a treaty<\/a> annexing four Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation. The Russian president announced, at a ceremony in Moscow\u2019s Red Square, that the incorporation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, in the south and east of Ukraine, into Russia is the \u201cchoice of millions of people\u201d who share a \u201ccommon history\u201d with the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe call on the Kyiv regime to immediately end hostilities, end the war that they unleashed back in 2014 and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this,\u201d Putin said<\/a>. \u201cBut we will not discuss the choice of the people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. That has been made. Russia will not betray them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Putin hasn’t been clear about these regions<\/h2>\n

What the Russian president didn\u2019t make clear was exactly what these newly minted so-called Russian regions actually represent<\/a>. Putin recognised breakaway republics in Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas region in February, the day before he launched the all-out invasion of Ukraine. But the \u201crepublics\u201d covered only part of the oblasts \u2013 or regions \u2013 these names refer to.<\/p>\n

Currently, fierce fighting continues across all four annexed regions, including around Zaporizhzhia, the location of Europe\u2019s largest nuclear power plant. It is thought that the land grab represents about 40,000 square miles<\/a>, or about 15% of Ukraine\u2019s territory.<\/p>\n

It has been reported<\/a> that Russian forces had shelled a civilian convoy in Zaporizhzhia, killing 25 people. Moscow has attempted to blame Kyiv for this. There is also heavy fighting around the key town of Lyman in the Donetsk region, where Ukrainian forces are reported to be close to encircling a large number of Russian troops.<\/p>\n

Putin said<\/a> that the citizens of the four occupied regions will be part of Russia \u201cfor ever\u201d. He blamed the west for wanting to \u201ccolonise\u201d Russia and its people.<\/p>\n

But he said \u2013 as he has repeatedly in recent weeks \u2013 that Russia would defend the territories \u201cwith all the forces and means at our disposal\u201d. This has widely been interpreted as a threat to use strategic nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues to pursue its counteroffensives in the occupied regions.<\/p>\n

Tried and tested charade<\/h2>\n

The latest annexations follow the model that Russia debuted in Crimea in 2014. First, let your armed backers<\/a> oversee a \u201creferendum\u201d. Given the circumstances, such an event can\u2019t be considered free or fair.<\/p>\n

Second, have unqualified and partisan<\/a> regime allies from abroad sign it off as free and fair. Third, publicise your suspiciously large<\/a> democratic mandate for incorporating the territories, dismiss international objections<\/a> of illegality, and proceed with annexation.<\/p>\n

The Putin regime has a long history of cynically using \u201cthe law\u201d to justify its actions. As Mark Galeotti, who has written 24 books about Russia and its politics wrote in the Spectator recently<\/a>, Putin \u201cis a man who would burn down your house, but would issue himself a permit to do so first\u201d.<\/p>\n

But just as Putin has honed his annexation procedure over time to try and legitimise Russia\u2019s land grabs, the international community has learned important lessons about how Russia boosts its military operations using media and disinformation.<\/p>\n

Evidence Putin could be courting the global south<\/h2>\n

If much of the international community does not buy Russia\u2019s line, then who is this charade actually for? There is some evidence that Russia is tailoring its international messaging for the global south (developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America). Since Russia\u2019s international broadcaster, RT, was banned or blocked across Europe<\/a> and North America, it has reoriented its Twitter feed towards India<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This reflects Russian politicians\u2019 rhetoric in recent years which has painted the country as part of a \u201crising power\u201d collective<\/a> that opposes western hegemony. Recent diplomatic efforts aimed at Iran and Putin\u2019s appearance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation<\/a> have reinforced this impression.<\/p>\n

But the idea that Russia is fighting a \u201ccolonial\u201d west doesn\u2019t stand up to scrutiny. Before the invasion, Putin argued that Ukrainians were just Russians by another name<\/a> and their country was an accident of history. Russian state media has argued<\/a> that the whole concept of Ukraine as a sovereign nation is neo-Nazi by definition.<\/p>\n

Official propaganda in occupied territories has stated that God is on Russia\u2019s side and replaced Ukrainian flags and symbols with Russian. These tactics look strikingly familiar to any countries that have been on the receiving end of colonialism. Russia\u2019s messaging about countering hegemony just doesn\u2019t ring true.<\/p>\n

Domestic consumption<\/h2>\n

On the other hand, the annexations might be intended to revitalise a lukewarm domestic population. Russia\u2019s state media has faithfully parroted the Kremlin\u2019s line throughout the conflict, and dissenting points of view have been ruthlessly crushed. Nonetheless, Russia\u2019s biggest shows of support for the war have appeared manufactured<\/a>, and Putin\u2019s mobilisation decree last week has been met with widespread public protests.<\/p>\n

Again, these public reactions have underlined Russia\u2019s colonial mindset. Many metropolitan, well-to-do ethnic Russians have fled overseas<\/a>. It appears that ethnic minorities have been disproportionately affected<\/a> by the mobilisation.<\/p>\n

It is no accident that heated confrontations<\/a> between protesters and police have occurred in Russia\u2019s north Caucasus region. Ethnic groups that experience poverty and systemic discrimination in the Russian Federation are being sent, untrained and ill-equipped, as cannon fodder to the front.<\/p>\n

Inadequacies of Russia’s military exposed<\/h2>\n

As my previous research<\/a> has shown, Russia\u2019s national identity \u2013 and that of the Soviet Union before it \u2013 has traditionally been linked to its claim to military might and heroism. Yet, Putin\u2019s war on Ukraine has made clear the inadequacies of Russia\u2019s military.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s nothing heroic about sending unwilling and unprepared young men to die in a war of choice. Russia\u2019s political elite has believed its own stories for so long that it struggles to believe that the audiences for its claims are rapidly decreasing.<\/p>\n

Catherine the Great\u2019s lover, Grigory Potemkin<\/a>, is said to have impressed her with the beauty of Russia\u2019s villages by constructing 2D painted fa\u00e7ades. Perhaps Russia\u2019s confidence when beginning its invasion was because of such an illusory Potemkin military, overhyped by officials unwilling to admit its corruption and decline.<\/p>\n

But resistance to Russia\u2019s occupation remains, and its Potemkin referendums are unlikely to help it turn the tide. Behind the fa\u00e7ade, Russia\u2019s hold on these illegally annexed territories is likely to be flimsy.\"The<\/p>\n

This article is republished from The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Picture: TPYXA_ILLUSTRATION for Shutterstock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr Precious Chatterje-Doody is a lecturer in politics and international studies at the OU and an expert on Russian foreign and security policy, with a particular interest in the interplay of communication, perception and security. Here’s her take on Putin in the wake of the recent annexations of Ukraine territory. Vladimir Putin has formally signed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":22092,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,15],"tags":[869,1525,1640],"class_list":["post-22090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arts-social-sciences","category-society-politics","tag-fass","tag-news-home","tag-ou-home"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22092"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}