{"id":23856,"date":"2023-08-17T14:13:24","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T13:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ounews.co\/?p=23856"},"modified":"2023-08-17T14:13:24","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T13:13:24","slug":"could-bidenomics-be-the-white-knight-to-save-uk-plc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/arts-social-sciences\/could-bidenomics-be-the-white-knight-to-save-uk-plc\/","title":{"rendered":"Could \u2018Bidenomics\u2019 be the white knight to save UK Plc?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our economy is broken in many places and it\u2019s not behaving the way it should but it\u2019s not beyond repair \u2013 we need more investment, in traditional industries as well as new tech, and a British \u2018Bidenomics\u2019 could be the answer.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_5032\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5032\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5032\" src=\"https:\/\/ounews.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/DSC01303_-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"Alan Shipman, OU\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-5032\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Senior Lecturer in Economics, Alan Shipman<\/p><\/div>\n<p>That&#8217;s the verdict of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/people\/as23764\">Alan Shipman<\/a>, Senior Lecturer in economics at The Open University, who reveals why the UK economy isn\u2019t working as it should and points across the pond to a possible solution for a bold Prime Minister.<\/p>\n<p>Not for the first time, it\u2019s the US recovery that should give us hope. Joe Biden\u2019s policies have kick-started growth while reducing inflation, by creating incentives for investment that can produce more without using more scarce resources.<\/p>\n<p>And by promoting local substitutes for technology and raw materials that come from abroad, they\u2019re boosting national security, giving his plans cross-party appeal.<\/p>\n<p>Biden hasn\u2019t shied away from making big corporations and high earners pay more of the bill, a strategy that can start to bring down record levels of inequality.<\/p>\n<p>Britain doesn\u2019t have America\u2019s advantages of printing the world\u2019s currency, controlling a large internal market, and being a magnet for top talent fleeing autocratic governments all over the world.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>World-class education and science<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>But we\u2019re further down the road to renewable energy and other sustainable technologies, helped by world-class education and science. And we\u2019re not threatened with the return of a leader like Trump.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s no wonder Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey look a bit puzzled these days, because the normal fixes are just not available.<\/p>\n<p>After the bounce-back from the pandemic, the Treasury would normally be looking to cut taxes and let the budget deficit rise a bit to get people spending more.<\/p>\n<p>But those options aren\u2019t available because of high inflation \u2013 still officially 7.9% in June, far above the 2% target.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Why the usual answers aren\u2019t working<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The usual answer would be for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, making it cheaper for business to invest. Instead they\u2019ve had to raise rates sharply, from 0.1% in late 2021 to 5.25% after the latest change a week ago.<\/p>\n<p>And the government\u2019s having to hold budget spending down, to avoid borrowing more when its debt is already big and getting more expensive.<\/p>\n<p>Inflation is high because we\u2019re running at full capacity. Rising output in the past two years has reduced unemployment to 4%, and left over a million unfilled vacancies.<\/p>\n<p>Those labour shortages would usually mean we all get a pay rise, but <a href=\"https:\/\/commonslibrary.parliament.uk\/what-happened-to-wages-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic\/#:~:text=At%20the%20beginning%20of%20the%20first%20lockdown%20(March%20to%20May,people%27s%20working%20hours%20were%20reduced.\">average wages<\/a> haven\u2019t risen since October 2020 after adjusting for inflation. In terms of what they buy, pay packets are actually <em>lower<\/em> than before the pandemic in manufacturing and most parts of the public sector.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>No more money for increased wages<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Economists say that\u2019s because our productivity, the value of what we produce, has stopped rising, so there\u2019s no more money to hand out.<\/p>\n<p>But they\u2019ve no clear idea why productivity has been slow-growing, holding down wage growth since the global financial crisis of 2008.<\/p>\n<p>The government <em>has<\/em> kept on investing, even in the austerity years after 2008, but it\u2019s been putting steadily less of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.resolutionfoundation.org\/press-releases\/public-investment-is-too-low-and-too-volatile-thanks-to-treasury-fiscal-fine-tuning\/\">nation\u2019s income<\/a> into projects that raise our growth potential. Even if the biggest public projects like HS2 stay on track, extra public spending never seems enough.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because as our national income rises, we want a rising proportion of it to be spent on the services we expect the state to provide \u2013 healthcare, childcare, the elderly, education, transport, policing. But we don\u2019t like paying a rising share of it as tax.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>UK profits have not fuelled private investment<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>UK companies have done better in protecting their profits against inflation than most of their workers in defending wages, and it\u2019s firms\u2019 success in maintaining profit margins that\u2019s made inflation so stubborn.<\/p>\n<p>But those profits haven\u2019t fed through into new private investment, which is the main thing we need to get more output (and income) when there aren\u2019t more people available for work.<\/p>\n<p>Many other parts of the economy have also stopped playing by the normal rules. The recent drop in house prices is normally good news for renters and first-time buyers, yet rents in most cities continue to rise, while the jump in interest rates makes mortgages harder to find.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Shortage of tradesmen affecting house building<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The lack of houses may get worse because plasterers, bricklayers and carpenters are among the professions about to be added to the Shortage Occupations list.<\/p>\n<p>The pound has gone down against the dollar and European currencies this year, which would normally boost the economy by making our goods cheaper abroad.<\/p>\n<p>But what we\u2019ve gained on more competitive exports has been outweighed by costlier imports, especially food and fuel. Britain still buys more from abroad than it sells there, leaving us depending on the City of London to keep attracting capital flows from the rest of the world.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>The role financial markets have played<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>The government tried one way out of this mess a year ago promising tax cuts and a range of growth-boosting investments to drive the technology change and carbon reduction that we need to survive. It had to change course when financial markets refused to finance the grand plan.<\/p>\n<p>But when neither ordinary families nor governments can borrow more, and prices are rising because products are scarce, we have to start shifting funds from excessive consumption towards useful production.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s still a way forward, for a prime minister who sets out more joined-up industrial policies and is bold enough to raise the financing they need.<\/p>\n<p><em>Picture: Shutterstock<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our economy is broken in many places and it\u2019s not behaving the way it should but it\u2019s not beyond repair \u2013 we need more investment, in traditional industries as well as new tech, and a British \u2018Bidenomics\u2019 could be the answer. That&#8217;s the verdict of Alan Shipman, Senior Lecturer in economics at The Open University, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":23857,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[860,869,1525,1640,2201],"class_list":["post-23856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arts-social-sciences","tag-faculty-of-fass","tag-fass","tag-news-home","tag-ou-home","tag-the-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.open.ac.uk\/blogs\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}