Statistics Seminar: Tailings dam slope stability analysis using the WARIMAX-GARCH and DBSTAR forecasting models

Dates

Tuesday, March 23, 2021 - 14:00 to 15:00

Speaker:   Jefferson Chaurais and Luiz Teixeria Jr (IntellTech and Universidade Fderal da Integracao Latino-Americana - UNILA, Foz do Iguacu)

Title:     Tailings dam slope stability analysis using the WARIMAX-GARCH and DBSTAR forecasting models

Abstract:

Slope stability is a very sensitive issue for geo-technicians on the mining sector. This is because a dam break may destroy cities with many negative impacts for the environment, society and the mining companies themselves. 

In Brazil, there were two recent major disasters. The collapse of Samarco’s Fundão dam in 2015 and the break of Vale’s B1 dam in 2019 that resulted in more than 300 deaths and homeless families, besides the catastrophic environmental consequences including the extinction of many flora and fauna endemic species. Therefore, it is very important for mining companies to focus on the stability of those structures. A slope is considered stable when its resistive inner forces are larger than the motive ones. To monitor them, it is common to install sensors to measure the surface displacement and the phreatic level. Hence, the forecasting of the measurements of those instruments may be used to predict when an accident may occur and give the company more time for a possible repairing action, or even for evacuation. 

In this seminar, we present a comparison of two different statistical models on the forecasting of dam monitoring instruments, the WARIMAX-GARCH and the DBSTAR.