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Prof Neil Edwards

Professor Of Earth System Science

School of Environment, Earth & Ecosystem Sciences

neil.edwards@open.ac.uk

Biography

Professional biography

Climate and environmental change breaks the statistical predictability that underlies insurance against natural disasters, questions the regulation of borrowing and investment between generations, disturbs the ecological systems that support the global population and threatens the stability of nations.

The impacts and feedbacks are dynamic, complex and multi-scale in space and time, they cannot be properly managed without an evolving dialogue that thoroughly explores the interface between environmental and socio-economic change. 

My research exploits dynamically simplified Earth system models and complementary approaches to bring the understanding of processes and feedbacks between natural and human systems and sub-systems to the fore.

Through a series of major interdisciplinary consortium projects, including GENIE and ERMITAGE, I have played a leading role in the integration of modelling and observational paleoclimate research and in the integration of detailed Earth system models with complex macroeconomic and energy technology forecasting models for the purposes of environmental policy assessments. 

To date (February 2025) I have been instrumental in raising over £20m of funding for Earth-system and integrated assessment modelling research and published over 100 refereed articles in a range of related fields, including 15 in Science, Nature and Cell Press journals (H=47 Google Scholar).

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring 
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time. (TS Eliot)

Research interests

Climate Dynamics, Integrated Assessment Modelling, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics.

Teaching interests

I have worked on a number of environment-related modules and recently chaired two interdisciplinary third-level modules in presentation, U316 The environmental web and S396 Ecosystems. I also chaired the production of the third-level Terrestrial Ecosystems module S397. 

Current roles

Co-Director (Sustainability), Open Societal Challenges programme

Open University Co-lead (Environment), Interdisciplinary Life and Environmental Sciences Landscape Award (ILESLA), PhD training programme

 

Projects

Système intégré de suivi et d'évaluation des négociations sur le climat à partir de COP-15. (SE-09-058-NE)

Robust infrastructure decision-making for the wind industry

Financial risk and the impact of climate change

GENIE tool (SE-09-013-NE)

Interim funding for ESM Activities supported under the GENIE and GENIEfy projects. (SE-09-050-NE)

South American Biodiversity Evolutionary Reconstructions

Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation

Resilience and foresight for global environmental change in Brazil: Complexity across scales in the Energy-Water-Food Nexus

Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation - Phase 2

Plausible policy pathways to Paris

Quantifying Uncertainty in ANTarctic Ice Sheet instability

Spatio-temporal dynamics of damage functions in IAMs

Publications

Book Chapter

ABC for Climate: Dealing with Expensive Simulators (2018)

Fairness in climate negotiations: a meta-game analysis based on community integrated assessment (2015)

Assessing climate impacts on the energy sector with TIAM-WORLD: focus on heating and cooling and hydropower potential (2015)

Linking climate and economic dynamics (2005)

An Oracle method to couple climate and economic dynamics (2005)

Journal Article

Transforming US agriculture for carbon removal with enhanced weathering (2025)

Polar wander leads to large differences in past climate reconstructions (2025)

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations of the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (2024)

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations in the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (2024)

PALEO-PGEM-Series: A spatial time series of the global climate over the last 5 million years (Plio-Pleistocene) (2023)

Potential pension fund losses should not deter high-income countries from bold climate action (2023)

Reply to: When did mammoths go extinct? (2022)

Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations (2022)

Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom (2022)

Quantifying the Impact of Bedrock Topography Uncertainty in Pine Island Glacier Projections for This Century (2022)

Stranded fossil-fuel assets translate to major losses for investors in advanced economies (2022)

Environmental and health impacts of atmospheric CO2 removal by enhanced rock weathering depend on nations’ energy mix (2022)

The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ (2022)

Reframing incentives for climate policy action (2021)

Tectonic and climatic drivers of Asian monsoon evolution (2021)

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank (2021)

The role of enhanced rock weathering deployment with agriculture in limiting future warming and protecting coral reefs (2021)

The role of habitat fragmentation in Pleistocene megafauna extinction in Eurasia (2021)

Late Quaternary dynamics of Arctic biota from ancient environmental genomics (2021)

Low‐carbon transition risks for finance (2021)

A major change in rate of climate niche envelope evolution during hominid history (2020)

Past extinctions of Homo species coincided with increased vulnerability to climatic change (2020)

Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands (2020)

Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data (2020)

An Introduction to Seshat: Global History Databank (2020)

Quantitative genetics of body size evolution on islands: an individual-based simulation approach (2019)

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to regional variability in particulate organic matter remineralization depths (2019)

Coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum atmospheric CO2 decrease using a large ensemble of modern plausible parameter sets (2019)

System complexity and policy integration challenges: The Brazilian Energy- Water-Food Nexus (2019)

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data (2019)

Revisiting Antarctic ice loss due to marine ice cliff instability (2019)

Beyond carbon pricing: policy levers for negative emissions technologies (2019)

Mainstreaming the Water-Energy-Food Nexus through nationally determined contributions (NDCs): the case of Brazil (2019)

PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate (2019)

Producing Policy-relevant Science by Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for the Assessment of Global Environmental Change (2019)

Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves (2018)

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement (2018)

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets (2018)

Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE (2018)

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability (2018)

Smart Cities and M3: Rapid Research, Meaningful Metrics and Co-Design (2018)

Physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise: a coupled GIS and CGE analysis under uncertainties (2016)

PLASIM–GENIE v1.0: a new intermediate complexity AOGCM (2016)

Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators (2016)

Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy (2016)

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector (2016)

Emulating global climate change impacts on crop yields (2015)

Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling (2015)

Agricultural productivity in past societies: toward an empirically informed model for testing cultural evolutionary hypotheses (2015)

Emulation and interpretation of high-dimensional climate model outputs (2015)

The dynamics of technology diffusion and the impacts of climate policy instruments in the decarbonisation of the global electricity sector (2014)

Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity (2014)

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment (2014)

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison (2013)

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (2013)

Controls on the spatial distribution of oceanic δ13CDIC (2013)

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis (2013)

A model-based constraint on CO2 fertilisation (2013)

Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: “eb_go_gs” configurations of GENIE (2011)

Mitigation: Plausible mitigation targets (2011)

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (2011)

The Mid-Brunhes Event and West Antarctic ice sheet stability (2011)

Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system (2011)

Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model (2011)

A multi-variable box model approach to the soft tissue carbon pump (2010)

Dimensionally reduced emulation of an AOGCM for application to integrated assessment modelling (2010)

Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials (2010)

Meridional density gradients do not control the Atlantic overturning circulation (2010)

A comprehensive, multi-process box-model approach to glacial-interglacial carbon cycling (2010)

A synthesis of marine sediment core δ13C data over the last 150 000 years (2010)

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1 (2010)

Modelled natural and excess radiocarbon: Sensitivities to the gas exchange formulation and ocean transport strength (2008)

Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models (2008)

A wavelet-coefficient score for comparison of two-dimensional climatic-data fields (2008)

Location of potential energy sources and the export of dense water from the Atlantic Ocean (2008)

Effects of atmospheric dynamics and ocean resolution on bi-stability of the thermohaline circulation examined using the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling (GENIE) framework (2007)

Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling (2007)

Modeling the relationship between 231Pa/230Th distribution in North Atlantic sediment and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (2007)

Water mass distribution and ventilation time scales in a cost-efficient, 3-dimensional ocean model (2006)

The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics (2006)

An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling (2006)

Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model (2006)

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: a convex optimization approach (2006)

231Pa/230Th fractionation by ocean transport, biogenic particle flux and particle type (2005)

Focusing of an inertia - gravity wave packet by a baroclinic shear flow (2005)

Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model (2005)

Oracle-based optimization applied to climate model calibration (2005)

Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter (2005)

Bistability of the thermohaline circulation identified through comprehensive 2-parameter sweeps of an efficient climate model (2004)

An efficient climate forecasting method using an intermediate complexity Earth System Model and the ensemble Kalman filter (2004)

Similar meltwater contributions to glacial sea level changes from Antarctic and northern ice sheets (2004)

Nonlinear double-diffusive intrusions at the equator (2004)

Presentation / Conference

Multiobjective tuning of grid-enabled Earth system models using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) (2006)