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Dr Nicholas Watkins

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Publications

Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change (2020-10-06)
Calel, Raphael; Chapman, Sandra C.; Stainforth, David A. and Watkins, Nicholas W.
Nature Communications, 11, Article 5028


Quantifying the Solar Cycle Modulation of Extreme Space Weather (2020-06-16)
Chapman, S. C.; McIntosh, S. W.; Leamon, R. J. and Watkins, N. W.
Geophysical Research Letters, 47, Article e2020GL087795(11)


Trends in Winter Warm Spells in the Central England Temperature Record (2020-06-04)
Chapman, S. C.; Murphy, E. J.; Stainforth, D. A. and Watkins, N.W.
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 59(6) (pp. 1069-1076)


The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales (2020-03-05)
Franzke, Christian L.E.; Barbosa, Susana; Blender, Richard; Fredriksen, Hege‐Beate; Laepple, Thomas; Lambert, Fabrice; Nilsen, Tine; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin; Scotto, Manuel G.; Vannitsem, Stéphane; Watkins, Nicholas W.; Yang, Lichao and Yuan, Naiming
Reviews of Geophysics ((Early Access))


Using the aa index over the last 14 solar cycles to characterize extreme geomagnetic activity (2020-02-16)
Chapman, S. C.; Horne, R. B. and Watkins, N. W.
Geophysical Research Letters, 47, Article e2019GL086524(3)


Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude (2020)
McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra; Leamon, Robert J.; Egeland, Ricky and Watkins, Nicholas W.
Solar Physics, 295(12) (p 163)


First passage and first hitting times of Lévy flights and Lévy walks (2019-10-11)
Palyulin, Vladimir V; Blackburn, George; Lomholt, Michael A; Watkins, Nicholas W.; Metzler, Ralf; Klages, Rainer and Chechkin, Aleksei V
New Journal of Physics, 21, Article 103028(10)


Warming trends in summer heatwaves (2019-02-16)
Chapman, S. C.; Watkins, Nicholas and Stainforth, D. A.
Geophysical Research Letters, 46(3) (pp. 1634-1640)


Mandelbrot's stochastic time series models (2019)
Watkins, N. W.
Earth and Space Science, 6(11) (pp. 2044-2056)


Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change (2018-11-10)
Shepherd, Theodore G.; Boyd, Emily; Calel, Raphael A.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Dessai, Suraje; Dima-West, Ioana M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; James, Rachel; Maraun, Douglas; Martius, Olivia; Senior, Catherine A.; Sobel, Adam H.; Stainforth, David A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.; Watkins, Nicholas; Wilby, Robert L. and Zenghelis, Dimitri A.
Climatic Change, 151(3-4) (pp. 555-571)


The dependence of solar wind burst size on burst duration and its invariance across solar cycles 23 and 24 (2018-09)
Tindale, E.; Chapman, S. C.; Moloney, N. R. and Watkins, N. W.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 123(9) (pp. 7196-7210)


(A)phantasia and severely deficient autobiographical memory: Scientific and personal perspectives (2018-08)
Watkins, Nicholas W.
Cortex, 105 (pp. 41-52)


Reproducible aspects of the climate of space weather over the last five solar cycles (2018-08)
Chapman, S. C.; Watkins, N. W. and Tindale, E.
Space Weather, 16(8) (pp. 1128-1142)


Control system-plasma synchronization and naturally occurring edge localized modes in a tokamak (2018-06)
Chapman, S. C.; Lang, P. T.; Dendy, R. O.; Giannone, L.; Watkins, N. W. and ASDEX Upgrade Team,
Physics of Plasmas, 25, Article 62511(6)


On the continuing relevance of Mandelbrot’s non-ergodic fractional renewal models of 1963 to 1967 (2017-12-11)
Watkins, Nicholas W.
The European Physical Journal B, 90, Article 241(12)


Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models (2017-05-01)
Graves, Timothy; Franzke, Christian L.E.; Watkins, Nicholas W.; Gramacy, Robert B. and Tindale, Elizabeth
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 473 (pp. 60-71)


25 Years of Self-organized Criticality: Concepts and Controversies (2016-01)
Watkins, Nicholas W.; Pruessner, Gunnar; Chapman, Sandra C.; Crosby, Norma B. and Jensen, Henrik J.
Space Science Reviews, 198(1) (pp. 3-44)


Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE (2015-11-16)
Hush, P.; Chapman, S. C.; Dunlop, M. W. and Watkins, N. W.
Geophysical Research Letters, 42(21) (pp. 9197-9202)


Limits to the quantification of local climate change (2015-09-16)
Chapman, Sandra C.; Stainforth, David A. and Watkins, Nicholas W.
Environmental Research Letters, 10, Article 94018(9)


The global build-up to intrinsic edge localized mode bursts seen in divertor full flux loops in JET (2015)
Chapman, S. C.; Dendy, R. O.; Todd, T. N.; Watkins, N. W.; Calderon, F. A. and Morris, J.
Physics of Plasmas, 22, Article 72506(7)


Efficient Bayesian inference for natural time series using ARFIMA processes (2015)
Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E. and Watkins, N. W.
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22(6) (pp. 679-700)


A Dynamical Systems Explanation of the Hurst Effect and Atmospheric Low-Frequency Variability (2015)
Franzke, Christian L. E.; Osprey, Scott M.; Davini, Paolo and Watkins, Nicholas W.
Scientific Reports, 5, Article 9068


Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET (2014)
Chapman, S. C.; Dendy, R. O.; Todd, T. N.; Watkins, N. W.; Webster, A. J.; Calderon, F. A. and Morris, J.
Physics of Plasmas, 21, Article 62302(6)


Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions (2013-09-11)
Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C and Watkins, Nicholas W
Environmental Research Letters, 8 (p 34031)


A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century (2013-07-27)
Capparelli, V.; Franzke, C.; Vecchio, A.; Freeman, M. P.; Watkins, N. W. and Carbone, V.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(14) (pp. 7427-7434)


On estimating local long-term climate trends (2013-04-15)
Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A. and Watkins, N. W.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371, Article 20120287(1991)


Bunched black (and grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems (2013-03-03)
Watkins, N. W.
Geophysical Research Letters, 40(2) (pp. 402-410)


An Apparent Relation between ELM Occurrence Times and the Prior Evolution of Divertor Flux Loop Measurements in JET (2014)
Chapman, S. C.; Dendy, R. O.; Webster, A. J.; Watkins, N. W.; Todd, T. N.; Morris, J. and JET EFDA Contributors,
In : 41st EPS Conference on Plasma Physics (23-27 Jun 2014, Berlin)