Pivotal moment for humanity as global tipping points edge closer to irreversible change

Posted on 28 October 2025 • Science, maths, computing and technology

Global warming of around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels is pushing several critical parts of the Earth’s climate system towards or beyond irreversible thresholds, according to the newly published Global Tipping Points Report 2025.

Dr Ivan Sudakow, Lecturer in Applied Mathematics at The Open University, is among 160 authors from 87 institutions who contributed to the report, which builds on the findings of the 2023 assessment and provides the latest scientific evidence on the state of the Earth system.

The report identifies warm water coral reefs as the first ecosystem to cross a tipping point, while the Amazon rainforest, polar ice sheets, and key ocean currents such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are approaching thresholds that, if crossed, could trigger cascading and irreversible effects.

It also highlights the risks of a “tipping cascade,” where the crossing of one tipping point could accelerate others, with consequences for ecosystems, societies, and economies around the world.

The 2025 assessment underscores the urgency of rapid emissions reductions, ecosystem protection, and international cooperation. It also points to opportunities for positive tipping points, where technological, social, and policy innovations could self-reinforce sustainable transformation.

Dr Sudakow contributed his expertise in mathematical modelling of complex environmental systems, helping to analyse the dynamics of tipping points and identify early warning indicators.

He said:

“In 2023, I co-authored the Global Tipping Points Report, where we set out—for the first time—a clear, rigorous tipping points framework, with robust mathematical methods to identify and anticipate these thresholds.

“In 2025, we take a more optimistic, solutions-focused view: alongside the risks, we show how positive tipping points can speed progress toward a low-carbon, resilient future.”

The report is released ahead of COP30, providing policymakers with the most up-to-date scientific evidence on the risks and opportunities associated with tipping points.

Read the full report at: https://global-tipping-points.org/