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The end of petrol shortages and the promise of North Sea oil have led many people to imagine that the energy crisis is something which they have experienced and is now over. Fuel Crisis shatters th...at illusion. The programme forecasts sizeable and increasing energy shortages for the 1980s which could have traumatic political and economic effects on society. "It's by no means clear that Governments or people in general have come to understand the underlying nature of the energy situation", says Professor Mike Hussey. Harry Warman, Exploration Manager of BP, forecasts that by the end of the 1980s a steady decline in the supply of oil will have begun and Peter Chapman, head of the Open University's Energy Research Group, argues that other energy sources, such as coal and nuclear power, will not provide the answer. For instance, Dr. Chapman says that, despite a 'crash programme' to build up the nuclear power industry in America, the increased output is piddling compared to the development of the total energy industry in the United States. Coal will be costly, he says, because miners will have to be highly paid to get it out of the ground. Dr. Chapman argues that the only way the economy can continue its very fast output growth is for it to have a continued supply of cheap fuel. This will no longer be possible in the 1980s. Economist Graham Bannock sees a situation where the mass of society would suffer 'a traumatic shock' from a fall in living standards. Only a few - miners, farmers and oil executives, for example - would be spared. "The contrast between those whose incomes continue to go up and those whose do not is a sure, a classic cause of strife... If things got very bad very quickly, authoritarian governments would emerge".
The end of petrol shortages and the promise of North Sea oil have led many people to imagine that the energy crisis is something which they have experienced and is now over. Fuel Crisis shatters th...at illusion. The programme forecasts sizeable and increasing energy shortages for the 1980s which could have traumatic political and economic effects on society. "It's by no means clear that Governments or people in general have come to understand the underlying nature of the energy situation", says Professor Mike Hussey. Harry Warman, Exploration Manager of BP, forecasts that by the end of the 1980s a steady decline in the supply of oil will have begun and Peter Chapman, head of the Open University's Energy Research Group, argues that other energy sources, such as coal and nuclear power, will not provide the answer. For instance, Dr. Chapman says that, despite a 'crash programme' to build up the nuclear power industry in America, the increased output is piddling compared to the development of the total energy industry in the United States. Coal will be costly, he says, because miners will have to be highly paid to get it out of the ground. Dr. Chapman argues that the only way the economy can continue its very fast output growth is for it to have a continued supply of cheap fuel. This will no longer be possible in the 1980s. Economist Graham Bannock sees a situation where the mass of society would suffer 'a traumatic shock' from a fall in living standards. Only a few - miners, farmers and oil executives, for example - would be spared. "The contrast between those whose incomes continue to go up and those whose do not is a sure, a classic cause of strife... If things got very bad very quickly, authoritarian governments would emerge".
| Module code and title: | D291, Statistical sources |
|---|---|
| Item code: | D291; 07 |
| Series: | Statistics and decision making |
| First transmission date: | 07-09-1975 |
| Published: | 1975 |
| Rights Statement: | |
| Restrictions on use: | |
| Duration: | 00:24:30 |
| + Show more... | |
| Producer: | Francis Sealey |
| Contributors: | Harry Warman; Neil Rubra; Michael Hussey; Alan Coddington; Gareth Price; Graham Bannock; Peter Chapman |
| Publisher: | BBC Open University |
| Keyword(s): | Coal; Oil; Statistics |
| Footage description: | Rubra introduces the programme which varies in intent from earlier ones. Various opinions are expressed about whether fuel bills in the long term will rise. Warman and Hussey look at actual and projected oil consumption and oil reserves. Shots from films on oil drilling. Projections of future consumption of oil in the U.S. are examined in detail. Graphs accompany Hussey's description. Possible use of other energy resources are outlined, such as nuclear energy. Chapman discusses some of the problems and costs involved. Hussey also comments on the possibilities of nuclear energy. Chapman looks at the flaws in the argument for using low grade uranium in nuclear reactors. The possibilities of using more fossil fuels, such as coal, are also discussed. Shots of miners. Some contributors conjecture on what may happen should crisis occur in the fuel supply market. Coddington and Bannock continue to look at possible political and economic effects of such a fuel crisis. Hussey and Price warn about the possible consequences of a complacent attitude to the fuel problem. Credits. |
| Master spool number: | 6HT/71687 |
| Production number: | 00525_2190 |
| Videofinder number: | 168 |
| Available to public: | no |
