Paleoclimate variability, dynamics and ecosystem interactions

In the paleoclimate realm, the EEES Earth system modelling group focuses primarily on problems involving long-timescale Earth system dynamics  beyond the reach of high-resolution modelling. We address this challenge through the development and application of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), notably GENIE and PLASIM, and statistical models of Earth system processes.

Fig: Observed species richness compared with modelled (simulated) richness (Rangel et al 2018).

The group works closely with observationalists, and with other modellers within EEES, as well as nationally and internationally. The primary objectives are to use modelling to improve understanding of both the causes and the effects of climate variability of the Earth system in the past. Ultimately, the aim is to transform this improved knowledge of the past into a deeper understanding of the present and future states of the Earth system.

Particular areas in which the group is working, or has recently worked, include:

• The evolution of South American biodiversity;
• The evolution of hominids through the last three-million years;
• The evolution of human society, in connection with the SESHAT historical database project;
• Ice-sheet dynamics and probabilistic constraints on sea-level rise from ice-sheet melting;
• The climate of past warm periods, including the Last Interglacial and the Eocene;
• Pleistocene glacial-interglacial (GIG) cycles and the GIG CO₂problem.

If you have any questions or want to find out more please contact Phil Holden.