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Description
The programme deals with the coniputer modelling technique of System Dynamics. It includes a brief history of the development of the technique culminating in the World Models of Professor Jay Forre...ster and Dennis Meadows. The technique is compared to others and some of the advantages and disadvantages are outlined. The latter part of the programme consists largely of an interview with R. Curnow of the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University. Part of his work involved testing the structure and function of Professor Meadow's World-3 model and some of his results are discussed by John Naughton.
The programme deals with the coniputer modelling technique of System Dynamics. It includes a brief history of the development of the technique culminating in the World Models of Professor Jay Forre...ster and Dennis Meadows. The technique is compared to others and some of the advantages and disadvantages are outlined. The latter part of the programme consists largely of an interview with R. Curnow of the Science Policy Research Unit at Sussex University. Part of his work involved testing the structure and function of Professor Meadow's World-3 model and some of his results are discussed by John Naughton.
| Module code and title: | T241, Systems behaviour |
|---|---|
| Item code: | T241; 10 |
| First transmission date: | 03-06-1973 |
| Published: | 1973 |
| Rights Statement: | |
| Restrictions on use: | |
| Duration: | 00:24:27 |
| + Show more... | |
| Producer: | John Groom |
| Contributors: | R. C. Curnow; Dennis Meadows; John Naughton |
| Publisher: | BBC Open University |
| Keyword(s): | Computer modelling; Systems dynamics; Sytems management |
| Footage description: | Shots of several 1972 newsflashes (teletype and newspaper) all telling of impending environmental doom. John Naughton introduces the programme. He briefly discusses the entry of the computer into the environmental field and the "Limits to Growth" report. Shot of Dennis Meadows and the cover of "Limits to Growth". The programme will examine the MIT use of systems dynamics to model the world social system. Still shots of Jay Forrester who developed systems dynamics and created the MIT "World 2" Model. Naughton gives the background to systems dynamics from its use in modelling industries to modelling the world social system. Shot of "World 2" model flow chart. Naughton discusses Forresters concept of a model and how a systems dynamics model differs from other mathematical models. Naughton looks at Forrester's "World 2" model in greater detail. He lists the five accumulations of the world system as idendified by Forrester. Shot of the curves resulting from the "World 2" standard run. These forecast doom by 2020 AD. The capital investment level of Forresters model is examined in detail to check the assumptions made for it. Shots of the capital investment portion of the "World 2" flow chart. Commentary by Naughton explains. Shot of CIM - MLS graph.(Material Standard of living - Capital Investment Multiplier). Naughton questions the assumptions made by Forrester as to their relationship. Naughton discusses the systems dynamics approach which assumes, intuitively, relationships between accumulations which other disciplines try to quantify using statistical data. Voice of D.Meadows defends the systems dynamics approach of making intuitive assumptions in contructing models. Still shot of Meadows. Naughton begins his examination of the MIT "World 3" model. He looks at the ICOR (investment Capital Output Ratio) part of the model and questions Meadows' assumptions of its value. Still shot of Meadows. Commentary by Meadows explains how it was possible to make intuitive assumptions about ICOR value. Naughton introduces Ray Curnow of the Science Policy Reasearch Unit, Sussex University. R.Curnow explains the background to the Sussex University examination and critique of MIT's "World 2" and "World 3" models. R.Curnow gives some of the results of the Sussex University investigations into the Capital Sector particularly the ICOR sector. Curnow shows several graphs which give world system curves for various values of ICOR. He points out the differences. This seems to challenge Meadows' assertion that the model is not sensitive to changes in its individual components. Naughton sums this up. Still shots of Meadows. Commentary by Meadows still claims that the model is not sensitive to changes in individual components. Naughton explains how the views of both Meadows and Curnow can be justified. Ray Curnow discusses the work done in checking the effect of several small input changes on the models' predictions. Shot of the output graph for one such run showing radical differences over the standard run. Naughton sums up the programme. Curnow sums up with a statement of the drawbacks of using systems dynamics for creating world models. |
| Master spool number: | 6HT/71052 |
| Production number: | 00525_5020 |
| Videofinder number: | 2717 |
| Available to public: | no |
