Applied Mathematics Colloquium - Energy budget models and the pattern effect

Dates

Tuesday, March 14, 2023 - 14:00 to 15:00

Speaker:   B. B. Cael (National Oceanography Centre)

Abstract:
Climate change is often understood in terms of the Earth’s energy budget.  

Idealised energy balance models (EBMs) of climate are used for many applications, but it is not clear how they should represent non-linear climate phenomena. The most notable of such phenomena is the ‘pattern effect’ whereby the overall climate feedback changes over time due to the spatial patterns of surface warming and radiative feedbacks. I will first present some examples of the utility of EBMs related to methane emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal strategies, then demonstrate the importance of selecting the right EBM for such applications. I will then derive observational estimates of the key EBM parameters, and crucially their time-evolution due to the pattern effect, over the historical period that can be used to select and constrain these models. I will show how these observational estimates can help reduce bias and uncertainty in climate projections. Finally, I will present a new EBM which better captures historical observations and complex climate model behaviour.