Dynamic Forecasting in Dam Safety

Flooding from a tailings dam burst in Brazil.

This research investigates both Bayesian and classical statistical forecasting methods as part of monitoring control systems for safety assessment of artificial dams. The system combines real time sensorial measurements from various monitoring devices together with past data and expert judgement to quantify patterns and generate forecasts that can be used in risk assessment. Current applications of the methodology developed so far include (a) monitoring and forecasting using data from physical displacements of the dam that supplies the Itaipu hydroelectric plant in southern Brazil, and (b) supporting safety assessment of tailings dams in various mining plants in Brazil, Peru and Chile. As a result of this research, a start-up company was created to develop a system based on the developed methodology. The system is now fully operational at various mining plants following the recent disasters at Mariana and Brumadinho tailing dams in Minas Gerais, southeast Brazil.

Related publications:

• Hickmann, Tásia; Teixeira Júnior, Luis Albino; Faria, Álvaro; Rodrigues, Samuel B.; Côrrea, Jairo M. and Garcia, Everton L. (2018). Temperature field forecast in concrete dam with the use of Arima Models and the Finite Element Method. In: Andrade, Darly Fernando ed. Métodos Quantitativos – Pesquisa Operacional, Volume 3. Belo Horizonte: Editora Poisson, pp. 112–123.
• Hickman, Tásia; Teixeira Jr., Luiz Albino; Faria, Alvaro; Rodrigues, Samuel Bellido; Côrrea, Jairo Marlon; Garcia, Everton Luís and Aracayo, Luis Antonio Sucapuca (2016). Temperature field forecast in concrete dam with the use of ARIMA models and the finite element method. In: Anais do XLVIII - Simpósio Brasileiro de Pesquisa Operacional, 27-30 Sep 2016, Vitoria, Brazil.
• Corrêa, J. M.; Neto, A. C.; Teixeira Júnior, L. A.; Franco, E. M. C. and Faria Jr, A. E. (2016). Time series forecasting with the WARIMAX-GARCH method. Neurocomputing, 216 pp. 805–815.
• Teixeira Júnior, Luiz Albino; Faria Júnior, Álvaro Eduardo; Pereira, Ricardo Vela de Britto; Souza, Reinaldo Castro and Franco, Edgar Manuel Carreño (2016). COMBINAÇÃO LINEAR WAVELET SARIMA-RNA COM ESTÁGIOS MULTIPLOS NA PREVISÃO DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS. In: Blucher Marine Engineering Proceedings, Blucher, São Paulo, 2(1) pp. 295–307.
• Correa, Jairo Marlon; Neto, Anselmo Chaves; Teixeira Junior, Luiz Albino; Carreno, Edgar Manuel and Faria, Álvaro Eduardo (2016). Linear combination of forecasts with numerical adjustment via MINIMAX non-linear programming. Revista GEPROS - Gestão da Produção, Operações e Sistemas, 11(1) pp. 79–95.