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Accessibility statement
This module introduces models to describe patterns of events that occur in time (such as earthquakes) and space (for instance, the occurrence of a plant species). You’ll study situations that occur only at discrete time points, including the gambler’s ruin, and develop probability models for situations where events may occur at any time, such as the spread of an epidemic. The module ends with other situations involving probability, including genetics and changes in stock market prices.
This module in probability and its applications emphasises probability modelling and developing the properties of the models. A considerable amount of mathematics is sometimes required for this development, but we do not always give formal proofs, particularly if the proof does not illuminate the probabilistic ideas.
The module consists of five books.
The first one, which is introductory, revises and develops ideas about probability and introduces some techniques frequently used in the module.
The second book develops models for events occurring in time, including the Poisson process and several extensions of it, and patterns in space, including models for random scatter and clustering of objects.
The third book develops models for processes where events can occur only at discrete time points, such as a Bernoulli process. This includes practical situations such as the ruin of a gambler and the extinction of a family surname.
In the fourth book, probability models are developed for situations where events can occur at any time. Examples include queues, the spread of epidemics, and the change in the size of a population due to births and deaths.
In the fifth book, models are developed for various situations, including genetics, the renewal of components, and the change in stock market prices.
The full content list is on the Open mathematics and statistics website.
There is no formal pre-requisite study, but you must have the required mathematical skills.
You can check you’re ready for M343 and see the topics it covers here.
You should aim to be confident and fluent with the concepts covered in the Are you ready? quiz, and follow the advice in the quiz.
The key topics to revise include:
You’ll also find it useful to be familiar with the following topics:
An OU level 2 module in mathematics is ideal preparation, and Analysing data (M248) is also useful.
You’ll get help and support from an assigned tutor throughout your module.
They’ll help by:
Online tutorials run throughout the module. While they’re not compulsory, we strongly encourage you to participate. Where possible, we’ll make recordings available.
Course work includes:
We’re using a new examination verification process for this module. We may ask you to attend a 15-minute post-exam video discussion, where you’ll present a photo ID and discuss your answers to a small number of questions with a tutor or member of the module team. The discussion isn’t graded; it’s only to verify that you completed the exam yourself.
You’ll have access to a module website, which includes:
We also provide physical:
The OU strives to make all aspects of study accessible to everyone, and this Accessibility Statement outlines what studying M343 involves. You should use this information to inform your study preparations and any discussions with us about how we can meet your needs.
To find out more about what kind of support and adjustments might be available, contact us or visit our Disability support website.
Applications of probability (M343) starts once a year – in October.
It will next start in October 2026.
We expect it to start for the last time in October 2030.
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