Category Archives: Simon Rea

World Cup 2014 – it’s here again but is it coming home?

By Simon Rea

It’s upon us again – the football circus that is the World Cup.  Flags are appearing on cars, houses and pubs and the talk is of heat, humidity, samba football and penalty shoot outs.  If you have no interest in football now is the time to book that once in a lifetime trip to Albania or Kazakhstan, or other countries who have not qualified, for the next month.

Brazil has a special significance in the hearts of football fans.  They are the most successful team in World Cup history with five titles and have been represented by outstanding footballers such as Pele, Garrincha, Zico, Romario and Ronaldo.  They boast iconic stadia, such as the Maracana, placed in breath-taking settings. Certainly my interest in football was cemented by watching Brazil beat Scotland 4-1 in the 1982 World Cup. I could not believe that football could be played like that.  The sport of football may have developed in England but somewhere along the line Brazil became its spiritual home.

In this article I will consider some of the important factors that may contribute to one team rising above the others and claiming the title on 12th July.

Who will be in the quarter finals?

FIFA rankings show Spain, Germany, Portugal and Brazil as the top ranked teams with England rated as 11th.  The Elo ratings, developed by Arpad Elo which take into account skill levels of players and teams, the performances of teams in recent competitions and home advantage are almost in agreement.  They say that the semi-finalists are likely to be Brazil, Spain, Germany and Argentina with Brazil and Argentina making it to the final.  These statistical predictions look fairly sound but do not take into account what may happen during the tournament – injuries, lower ranked teams over performing or the role of luck.  Also, Brazil, Argentina and Germany are three of the four most successful teams in World Cup (based on matches won) with Italy being the fourth.  In a bid to raise optimism it is worth noting that England are the fifth most successful team, just ahead of Spain. Brazil are the clear favourites to win a sixth title but what are the key factors for success?

The effect of home advantage

This will be the 20th World Cup and of the previous 19 tournaments 6 have been won by the host nation.  Even more relevant is that 17 tournaments have been won by a team from the Continent that has hosted the event.  Spain’s 2010 victory in South Africa was something of an anomaly as was European teams gaining the first three places.  Pollard (2006) identified that factors such as crowd support, less travel, familiarity with grounds and conditions, referee bias and psychological factors (the expectations of success) can all play a part.  Home advantage is often reframed as away disadvantage as the tiring effects of travel, living away from home, changes in diet and lack of familiarity with weather conditions can all play a negative role.

Team dynamics

While performance on the pitch is the only thing that counts this can be effected by what happens off the pitch.  Players are forced to live, eat and breathe with each other for periods of up to six weeks.  There may be clashes of personality, battles of egos, loyalties divided along club lines and all manners of barriers to team cohesion.  In 2010 the French team, who had been victorious in 2002 and runners up in 2006, boycotted their final training session in protest at the sending home of Nicolas Anelka.  Anelka was involved in an argument with the coach and this caused a rift between players and coach.  The outcome was that France went home after the group stage.  Dutch teams have also often been characterised by infighting and group conflict.

Tactics

Teams need to be aware of the heat when working on tactics.  The high tempo, pressing game favoured by European teams, England included, is not suited to the heat of the Brazil and particularly the jungle in Manaus.  Many South American teams favour a passing team where the ball does the work and saves the energy of the players.

My choice of quarter finalists

I think Brazil and Argentina will be there and joined by two of Chile, France and The Ivory Coast.  I think that the Spanish team are one major tournament past their peak and their age may work against them; Germany will be hard to beat but their reliance on Miroslav Klose to score goals is risky.  Chile have two world stars in Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez and they play very attacking football.  France are developing as a team and in Rafael Varane and Paul Pogba have two outstanding young players.  If the Ivory Coast can develop a team ethic then players such as Yaya Toure, Chiek Tiote and Didier Drogba could make them a major force.

What about England’s chances?

I think that England are developing into a very effective team and that they will have the chance to grow throughout the tournament.  In 1990 the England team was introducing players such as Paul Gascoigne and David Platt to their first tournament and they excelled on the big stage. England’s Daniel Sturridge has to be scoring goals for England to progress but it is the players who supply the chances that are the central to success. The English players to watch are Adam Lallana and Raheem Sterling.  Lallana has neither pace nor power but he has fast feet and can find space in tight areas; on the other hand Sterling has searing pace that can scare defenders.  If England are to progress they must beat Italy as it will be difficult for them when they face Uruguay.

Who wins then?

The World Cup favours the host nation, those with the best players and the most fanatical supporters.  I have to tip Brazil to win and Neymar to be top scorer.

Reference

Pollard, R. (2006). Home advantage in soccer: Variations in its magnitude and a literature review on interrelated factors associated with its existence. Journal of Sports Behaviour, 29, 169-189.

Team GB’s equal best medal haul – but it’s all about the Curling!

By Simon Rea

On Friday 21st February Team GB will win their fourth medal, either a silver or gold, in the men’s curling final. It will equal the team’s best performance from the first Winter Olympics in 1924 held in Chamonix. Four medals may look a modest haul in contrast to Norway’s 21 and counting but it represents a significant improvement on the single medal achieved in 2010 and means that the team’s medal target has been achieved with a couple more medal chances to come over the weekend.

Sliding onto the podium
There was a major breakthrough on the first Sunday of the Games as Jenny Jones won a bronze medal in Snowboarding. According to the record books this is the first British medal on snow (all the others have been won in ice events), although Alain Baxter’s performance in the skiing slalom in 2002 needs to be acknowledged. He won the bronze medal but was disqualified for failing a drugs test due to the presence of a stimulant in an American Vicks inhaler he was using. He was later cleared of any wrong doing but the IOC declined to give him back his medal. Team GB’s first gold came courtesy of a brilliant performance over four runs of the skeleton course by Lizzy Yarnold. She followed in the footsteps of Amy Williams and celebrated by changing her name to ‘YarGold’ for one day.

Curling – the nation’s new favourite sport!
Team GB’s success in 2014 has centred on the Ice Cube Curling Centre. Social media has been buzzing with posts and tweets about how people have become obsessed with the curling events. Interest in Curling has overcome the jibes about it being ‘competitive housework’ as viewers are treated to the excitement and the drama of the matches that can change with every stone released. The use of language, such as stones, hammer, sweeps and skips is becoming commonplace and curling works on many levels. Unlike many Winter Olympic events the competitors compete head to head rather than one after another so the drama is constantly unfolding and the battle between the teams is visible to see. It is a perfect television sport as the sheet that it is played on can be viewed from overhead, the stones, the house and the team’s kit are colourful and appealing. The camera can look straight into the eyes of the curlers and examine every change of emotion as they release the stones and watch their trajectory. Commentators refer to the wide, blue eyes of Anna Sloan or the steely glare of Eve Muirhead. The sport is highly skilled and the curlers have to control their emotions under extreme pressure and keep their concentration. Curling has earned the nickname ‘chess on ice’ because success is reliant on the strategy of each team. Each team has eight stones per end and the first stones are as influential as the last as the team seek to put up guards for their later stones or keep the route to the house clear. Maybe Curling is better compared to snooker as not only do you have to keep thinking ahead to the next shots but you also have to work out angles to hit your opponent’s stones to your advantage. The movement of the stones can be controlled by the sweepers whose work decreases the friction between the stone and ice and can influence the speed and direction of the stone.

Can it get even better?
Four Scottish women with an average age of 23 have won the bronze medal and Dave Murdoch’s men’s team will win either gold or silver. A gold medal would improve on the medal haul from 1924 and would be the first time Britain has won two golds at a Games. They are also putting together a strong case against Scottish devolution from the UK! There are other medal chances as well as the seriously unlucky Elise Christie (a former OU student) and the men’s 4-man bobsleigh provide the possibility of medals. Team GB has also had several athletes placed well in finals but outside the medal positions.

Up to this point the Sochi Games have proved to be a positive experience with spectacular venues and performances to match. The new events, such as slope style have been popular and well received. And maybe, just maybe, the best Winter Olympic performance for Team GB.

Sochi, here we come – The Winter Olympics 2014

By Simon Rea

On the 7th February the Olympic torch arrived in the Russian resort of Sochi, nestled beside the Black Sea, having been carried by 14,000 torch bearers over 65,000 kilometres through 83 states of Russia.  Its arrival marked the start of the 22nd Winter Olympics and the first to be held in Russia.  These Games will be the most compact in Olympic history with two main sites – The Coastal Cluster that includes the 40,000 capacity Fischt Olympic Stadium and the Mountain Cluster 18 miles to the north in the Caucasus Mountains.  The Coastal Cluster will host events such as ice hockey, speed skating and figure skating with the skiing events being held in the Mountain Cluster.

President Putin is hopeful that the twin ‘mega events’, the Winter Olympics of 2014 and the Football World Cup in 2018 will boost the positive image of Russia around the world, just as the Summer Olympics of 2008 and 2012 did for the cities of Beijing and London.  This is a dangerous game to play as amid the terrorist threats, accusations of human rights abuses and restriction of the freedom of expression Russia are also presiding over the most expensive Olympics Games in history.  These Games are expected to cost the Russian taxpayer around £32 billion in comparison to the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver that cost £5.3 billion or London 2012 that cost just under £9 billion.  The road between the Mountain and Coastal clusters has cost as much as the budget for the entire 2010 Winter Olympics and led to an opposition Minister enquiring if it was paved with caviar.

The Winter Olympics were first held in Chamonix in 1924 with 250 athletes from 16 Nations. In Sochi there will be over 2500 athletes from 88 different Nations, including Zimbabwe and Togo for the first time, competing in 98 events in 15 different sports.  The first Winter Olympics were dominated by athletes from Norway, Finland, Austria and USA. Medal tables in subsequent Olympics show that this trend has continued with most medals being won by European and North American nations.  It is not too surprising given the shortage of physical resources that there has never been a Winter Olympic medallist from Africa or South America.

Slip sliding away

There have been many memorable moments in Winter Olympics history, such as Torville and Dean’s perfect rendition of Bolero and Herman Maier crashing and landing head first during the downhill skiing in Nagano only to walk away and come back to win gold medals in the giant slalom and Super-G events.  There have been honourable failures, such as Eddie the Eagle soaring to last place in the ski jump and the Jamaican bobsleigh team ending up travelling down the course upside down. 

The most successful winter Olympian is a Norwegian cross-country skier, Bjorn Daehlie, who won 12 medals including 8 golds between 1992 and 1998.  He was reputed to have a VO2 max (measure of aerobic fitness) of 96ml/kg/min which is one of the highest ever recorded.  He was also an athlete of great sportsmanship.  In 1998 he had become aware of a Kenyan skier, Philip Boit, who was competing in the 10k race.  Boit had only been skiing for two years and had excelled at 800 m running. He started training on ski rollers in Kenya before making his way to Finland to try snow for the first time. Boit’s event was won by Daehlie but rather than going directly to the medal ceremony he waited twenty minutes for Boit to finish so he could congratulate him on his achievement.  Apparently Boit informed Daehlie that he should enjoy his moment as he would beat him in Salt Lake City in four years’ time. It started a lifelong friendship and Boit named his first son after the Norwegian champion.

Bringing it back home – who to watch for the medals?

The Russian team are confident of a significant haul of medals to excite their supporters and their biggest hope is the men’s Ice Hockey team which contains several of their sporting icons.  However, Canada are the defending champions in this event and along with the Americans are always very strong. When looking at potential medallists it becomes clear that certain Nations are historically successful in certain events.  For example, Norway dominates cross-country skiing, Austria in ski jumping, Germany in the luge and bobsleigh, the Netherlands in speed skating and USA in snowboarding.  The following athletes are generally viewed as some of those most likely to make it to pinnacle of the podium.

  • Kallie Humphries is the Canadian driver of the two-woman bobsleigh and is reigning Olympic and World Champion. Kallie has been known to develop power for the start by pushing cars in training.
  • Shaun White is an American snowboarder who competes in the halfpipe event.  Known as ‘the flying tomato’ in tribute to his red hair his signature move is the Double McTwist where he rotates through 1260 degrees or 3 1/2 turns.
  • Sara Takenashi is a 16-year old Japanese schoolgirl who is aiming to become the first winner of the women’s ski jump event.  She has the perfect attributes for a ski jumper as she is under 5 foot tall and as a trained ballerina came to the sport with exceptional balance.
  • Felix Loch is the reigning champion in the luge and expected to win again.  In 2010 aged 20 he became the youngest winner of the event that was overshadowed by the death of a Georgian competitor, Nodar Kumaritashvili, during practice for the event.
  • Lizzy Yarnold is the British world champion in the skeleton event.  British sliders have had success in this event during the last three Winter Olympiads and with Yarnold and Shelly Rudman, the silver medallist from 2006, expectations are high.

The British Olympic team are hopeful that this can be their most successful Winter Olympic Games to follow the most successful Summer Olympic Games.  Irrespective of British performances the events, especially those with inherent dangers, are always going to be thrilling.  Added to this the stunning facilities in a magnificent setting the Sochi organising committee are promising a truly memorable Winter Olympics. 

Reference:

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2013/oct/09/sochi-2014-olympics-money-corruption

Great Britain on snow and ice – a brief history of involvement at the Winter Olympics

By Simon Rea

Out in the cold: Britain’s medal tally at the Winter Olympics

Great Britain’s recent involvement in the Summer Olympics has been an overwhelming success. It culminated with a third place finish in the medal table winning a total of 65 medals at the London Olympic Games of 2012 and many GB athletes becoming household names.  But how does this compare to Britain’s performances at the Winter Olympics? Ask most British people what they know about the Winter Olympics and they will reply with Torville and Dean, Eddie ‘the Eagle’ Edwards and something about skeleton Bob!

So are the Winter Olympics less relevant for a country that has few mountains where skiing is possible and no sliding facilities? Or is it something to get excited about and hopeful for British success?

Unfortunately, history is not on our side.  Compare the total medal hauls for the Summer and Winter Olympics:

  • Summer Olympics – Total: 780 medals (236 gold, 272 silver and 272 bronze)
  • Winter Olympics – Total: 22 medals (9 gold, 3 silver and 10 bronze)

Whilst acknowledging that these statistics are skewed because there are fewer medals available at the Winter Olympics, Britain has achieved under 3% of its Olympic medals at the Winter Olympics. Added to this Britain’s best performance at a Winter Olympic Games came at the first, held in Chamonix in 1924.  Great Britain secured four medals (1 gold, 1 silver and 2 bronze).  This performance achieved a sixth place in the medals table in comparison to sixteenth in 2010.  Along the way there have been some highpoints for British performers as well as several low-points, which may be best forgotten.

Success on the ice

In the late 1970s and early 1980s British figure skaters were prominent on the podium.  John Curry and Robin Cousins winning gold medals in the men’s singles figure skating in 1976 and 1980 respectively. Then in 1984 Christopher Dean and Jayne Torville won gold in the ice dancing and famously achieved the highest score for a single routine with twelve 6.0s and six 5.9s for their Bolero routine.  This was an all-time Olympic highlight.  They tried to repeat their success in 1994 but pushed the rules too far with a controversial assisted lift and had to settle for bronze.

British athletes have found success in the skeleton event which was introduced at the 2002 Olympics in Salt Lake City. This is an event where the athlete lies face down on a small steel sled and hurtles down an ice track at speeds of around 90 mph. British success in the skeleton was started in 2002 by Alex Coomber who won a bronze medal, an amazing feat considering that she had broken her wrist ten days prior to the event!  This was followed up by a silver medal for Shelley Rudman in 2006 and then a gold medal in 2010 for Amy Williams.  Currently, British women top the medal tables for this event.

As the sport of curling has Scottish origins it is one where we may expect that British athletes have found success.  In fact, Great Britain won the men’s event in 1924 and were the holders of the Olympic title until it was reintroduced into the Olympics in 1998.  Continuing the trend Rhona Martin’s team dramatically won gold in 2002 with the last stone of the competition, since then medals have been in short supply.

Frozen in time

With the exception of achievements in speed skating (Nicky Gooch, 1994) and in bobsleigh (Sean Olsson’s four, 1998) medals have been sparse on the ground.  Interestingly, one British failure at the Winter Olympics is remembered as fondly as the successes.  Eddie ‘the Eagle’ Edwards became an all-time Olympic hero in 1988 when he became the first (and still only) British competitor in the 70 m and 90 m ski jumps.  Eddie was a dedicated athlete who had tried to qualify for the British ski team in 1984 but had failed to make the team.  Not disheartened by failure he moved to Lake Placid and began training for the ski jump. However, he had two main problems – he was too heavy and he was long sighted.  In ski jumping it pays to be light because gravity will bring the heavier jumper to the ground more quickly. It also pays not to have to wear glasses as they become steamed up in cold weather.  Unfortunately Eddie came last in both events after which the IOC changed the rules to restrict the competition to ski jumpers who had achieved a certain standard. As a result Eddie failed to qualify for the next three Olympic Games.  Eddie the Eagle is an extraordinary story but spare a thought for the Finnish jumper who won the gold medal and whose victory was over shadowed by a jumper who finished over thirty metres behind him.

Skiing is another sport where British athletes have failed to gain a medal.  It looked like this had all changed in 2002 when Scottish skier, Alain Baxter, won a bronze medal in the slalom.  However, he was disqualified a few days later, when he was back home celebrating in Aviemore, having failed a drugs test.  He was found to have traces of methamphetamine in his body – this is a drug that had been in a Vicks inhaler he had used.  It transpired that the American version of the inhaler contained methamphetamine but the British version, which he usually used, did not.

Sochi 2014: British hopefuls set to break the ice

The lessons here are that if we are looking for British success in Sochi 2014 we should look at ice events such as curling, skeleton, speed skating and bobsleigh.  The attention of British viewers on the lookout for British success should be focused on some of the following athletes:

  • Lizzy Yarnold in the skeleton has won three World Cup races this season and has finished on the podium in every race.
  • Shelly Rudman who is the current skeleton world champion and looking to improve on her silver from 2006.
  • The women’s curling team and their skip, Eve Muirhead, are coached by Rhona Martin and are the current world champions.
  • Elise Christie in short track speed skating who is the current European champion at 1000 m and 1500 m.
  • John Jackson the pilot of the four man bobsleigh that just missed out a World Championship medal in 2013.

British hopes for Winter Olympics medals are usually modest. But this time maybe we can dream of beating our best performance of four medals in 1924 to match our best performance at a Summer Olympics in 2012.